Theresa May is about to do another U-turn. This time on international students

The Conservative manifesto is about to be published. And one of the commitments we now know is going to be renewed is the pledge to cut net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’. This despite the historic failure to get anywhere near 100,000. As the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg pointed out, it is sometimes useful to ponder what would happen if politicians did the opposite. With Labour on the ropes, and UKippers in fractious rigor mortis, this is no time to throw either a lifeline. No matter how unachievable the target might be.

But politicians are a wily bunch, and there is already evidence that one of the ways Mrs May is going to make progress towards her target is to re-define the universe. My bet is that she is about to finally give up on her determination to include students in the net migration figures. Thus reducing net migration by tens of thousands at a stroke.

Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, has said that the net migration commitment in the upcoming Tory manifesto will not be the same as in the 2015 version. So if the phrase ‘tens of thousands’ stays, then the Tories have to redefine the universe to help the decline on its way. The press will be supportive, and not just the Grauniad.

The SUN recently gave the government a face-saver with an editorial that said “we don’t believe people think of genuine foreign students as immigrants”, and that “much stricter checks, post-Brexit, to ensure they leave when their course ends would be sufficient good reason for students to be taken out of any future migration target”.

In the same week, the TIMES reported uncritically that the Government was preparing to make a concession on excluding international students from net migration figures. And the cross party Education Sub-Committee of the House of Commons published a report just before the General Election was announced calling for free movement of international students. A timely cross-party concensus when EU enrolments are already suffering.

Mrs May will get little opposition when she announces the new policy in the upcoming manifesto. Except perhaps from Paul Nuttall. And his 15 minutes of fame are almost over.