If fatalism is the belief that everything in life is pre-determined and that we have no control over our own destiny, then free will is the belief that we have the power to choose our own actions and shape our own destiny. Which is why as a marketer, I tend to be sceptical about people who argue that past trends determine future destiny – and that there’s nothing to be done about it.  

Marketers by their very nature, love a challenge and want to achieve demonstrable results. So it’s not surprising that when the HE Data Doomsters argue that a particular degree subject is going to continue to decline, and that universities should disinvest or plan its demise, my natural reaction is to work out how to stabilise it and then plan a return to growth. It’s not always possible of course, but in many instances, it’s well worth trying.

Take History for example. The number of students choosing to study History at university has halved over the past five years. No doubt in part because more are choosing more obviously vocational subjects such as Business and Law, but also because History in many universities is in portfolio stasis. Some ‘modern’ universities have removed History from their portfolio as they return to their vocational roots but many high ranking universities are also witnessing declines in this subject. And have done nothing about it as if it were the subject’s pre-determined destiny. 

Others, mostly Russell Group universities, have actively sought to improve the attractiveness of their History portfolios, introducing much more module choice to allow students to follow their particular interests, and importantly adding new degrees which perceptually at least, make the study of History more relevant to the students of the 2020s. New subjects such as ‘Politics and Modern History’, ‘History and Political Economy’,  ‘Modern History with Economics’, ‘Politics and 20th Century History’, and ‘Modern American History’ have variously helped to rejuvenate the portfolios of Durham, King’s College, Leeds, Manchester, Nottingham and Queen’s Belfast, and led to their growth in an otherwise declining market. 

If the Data Doomsters had their way, Actuarial Science would be on its way out of the few universities who offer it. It’s a low-recruiting subject which has been in decline for some time. But what is it and why has it been declining? My previous understanding was that Actuaries were specialists in life insurance companies calculating premiums based on estimates of our longevity. Talk to a Professor however and you’ll discover that it’s about risk management, especially in financial institutions, everyone from Goldman Sachs and Black Rock to Legal & General and Aviva. And that it’s a critical, highly paid role, carried out by the most talented mathematicians. 

Unsurprisingly, with its Dickensian name, most of us have no idea. The same Professor gave me the clue when he told me that he had to spend half his Open Day presentations explaining to parents and students what Actuarial Science is and does. The problem lies in the name, so the solution is to change it: Actuarial Science & (Financial) Risk Management, which may seem tautological to insiders, but passes the Ronseal test for the other 99% of us. The one university that has implemented this so far is Queen’s Belfast, and their numbers have grown substantially as a result. Others meanwhile, continue to suffer.

If you believe nothing can be done – and do nothing – then the result is inevitable. If on the other hand, you try to understand why subjects are declining and take corrective action – then at least you’ve got a chance of success. There are winners and losers in every business, including higher education. The winners are those who employ marketers to understand market needs. Who are encouraged by their academics to use this understanding to advise on programme portfolios. Marketers, in other words, who refuse to accept that the past determines the future.

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